Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.
Risk categories
City ranking
- 1MiamiStati Uniti1,73+1,9% real/yrBubble risk
- 2TokyoGiappone1,59+5,7% real/yrBubble risk
- 3ZurichSvizzera1,55+5% real/yrBubble risk
- 4Los AngelesStati Uniti1,11+0,9% real/yrOvervalued
- 5DubaiEmirati Arabi Uniti1,09+11,1% real/yrOvervalued
- 6AmsterdamPaesi Bassi1,06+1,2% real/yrOvervalued
- 7GenevaSvizzera1,05+4,1% real/yrOvervalued
- 8TorontoCanada0,80-7,5% real/yrOvervalued
- 9SydneyAustralia0,80+0,8% real/yrOvervalued
- 10MadridSpagna0,77+13,6% real/yrOvervalued
- 11FrankfurtGermania0,76-1,2% real/yrOvervalued
- 12VancouverCanada0,76-5,9% real/yrOvervalued
- 13MunichGermania0,64+1,4% real/yrOvervalued
- 14SingaporeSingapore0,55+2,6% real/yrOvervalued
- 15Hong KongHong Kong R.A.S.0,44-7,9% real/yrFair value
- 16LondonRegno Unito0,34-2,1% real/yrFair value
- 17San FranciscoStati Uniti0,28-2,6% real/yrFair value
- 18New YorkStati Uniti0,26-1,5% real/yrFair value
- 19ParisFrancia0,25+0,1% real/yrFair value
- 20MilanItalia0,01-2,7% real/yrFair value
- 21São PauloBrasile-0,100% real/yrFair value
Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.
What this means for you
A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.
Run your own numbers
Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (23 settembre 2025). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.