2025 edition · 21 cities

Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.

Risk categories

City ranking

  1. 1
    Miami
    Estados Unidos
    1,73+1,9% real/yrBubble risk
  2. 2
    Tokyo
    Japão
    1,59+5,7% real/yrBubble risk
  3. 3
    Zurich
    Suíça
    1,55+5% real/yrBubble risk
  4. 4
    Los Angeles
    Estados Unidos
    1,11+0,9% real/yrOvervalued
  5. 5
    Dubai
    Emirados Árabes Unidos
    1,09+11,1% real/yrOvervalued
  6. 6
    Amsterdam
    Países Baixos
    1,06+1,2% real/yrOvervalued
  7. 7
    Geneva
    Suíça
    1,05+4,1% real/yrOvervalued
  8. 8
    Toronto
    Canadá
    0,80-7,5% real/yrOvervalued
  9. 9
    Sydney
    Austrália
    0,80+0,8% real/yrOvervalued
  10. 10
    Madrid
    Espanha
    0,77+13,6% real/yrOvervalued
  11. 11
    Frankfurt
    Alemanha
    0,76-1,2% real/yrOvervalued
  12. 12
    Vancouver
    Canadá
    0,76-5,9% real/yrOvervalued
  13. 13
    Munich
    Alemanha
    0,64+1,4% real/yrOvervalued
  14. 14
    Singapore
    Singapura
    0,55+2,6% real/yrOvervalued
  15. 15
    Hong Kong
    Hong Kong (R.A.E.)
    0,44-7,9% real/yrFair value
  16. 16
    London
    Reino Unido
    0,34-2,1% real/yrFair value
  17. 17
    San Francisco
    Estados Unidos
    0,28-2,6% real/yrFair value
  18. 18
    New York
    Estados Unidos
    0,26-1,5% real/yrFair value
  19. 19
    Paris
    França
    0,25+0,1% real/yrFair value
  20. 20
    Milan
    Itália
    0,01-2,7% real/yrFair value
  21. 21
    São Paulo
    Brasil
    -0,100% real/yrFair value

Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.

What this means for you

A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.

Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (23 de setembro de 2025). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.