Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.
Risk categories
City ranking
- 1MiamiEstados Unidos1,73+1,9 % real/yrBubble risk
- 2TokyoJapón1,59+5,7 % real/yrBubble risk
- 3ZurichSuiza1,55+5 % real/yrBubble risk
- 4Los AngelesEstados Unidos1,11+0,9 % real/yrOvervalued
- 5DubaiEmiratos Árabes Unidos1,09+11,1 % real/yrOvervalued
- 6AmsterdamPaíses Bajos1,06+1,2 % real/yrOvervalued
- 7GenevaSuiza1,05+4,1 % real/yrOvervalued
- 8TorontoCanadá0,80-7,5 % real/yrOvervalued
- 9SydneyAustralia0,80+0,8 % real/yrOvervalued
- 10MadridEspaña0,77+13,6 % real/yrOvervalued
- 11FrankfurtAlemania0,76-1,2 % real/yrOvervalued
- 12VancouverCanadá0,76-5,9 % real/yrOvervalued
- 13MunichAlemania0,64+1,4 % real/yrOvervalued
- 14SingaporeSingapur0,55+2,6 % real/yrOvervalued
- 15Hong KongHong Kong (R.A.E.)0,44-7,9 % real/yrFair value
- 16LondonReino Unido0,34-2,1 % real/yrFair value
- 17San FranciscoEstados Unidos0,28-2,6 % real/yrFair value
- 18New YorkEstados Unidos0,26-1,5 % real/yrFair value
- 19ParisFrancia0,25+0,1 % real/yrFair value
- 20MilanItalia0,01-2,7 % real/yrFair value
- 21São PauloBrasil-0,100 % real/yrFair value
Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.
What this means for you
A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.
Run your own numbers
Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (23 de septiembre de 2025). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.