Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.
Risk categories
City ranking
- 1Miami美国1.73+1.9% real/yrBubble risk
- 2Tokyo日本1.59+5.7% real/yrBubble risk
- 3Zurich瑞士1.55+5% real/yrBubble risk
- 4Los Angeles美国1.11+0.9% real/yrOvervalued
- 5Dubai阿联酋1.09+11.1% real/yrOvervalued
- 6Amsterdam荷兰1.06+1.2% real/yrOvervalued
- 7Geneva瑞士1.05+4.1% real/yrOvervalued
- 8Toronto加拿大0.80-7.5% real/yrOvervalued
- 9Sydney澳大利亚0.80+0.8% real/yrOvervalued
- 10Madrid西班牙0.77+13.6% real/yrOvervalued
- 11Frankfurt德国0.76-1.2% real/yrOvervalued
- 12Vancouver加拿大0.76-5.9% real/yrOvervalued
- 13Munich德国0.64+1.4% real/yrOvervalued
- 14Singapore新加坡0.55+2.6% real/yrOvervalued
- 15Hong Kong中国香港特别行政区0.44-7.9% real/yrFair value
- 16London英国0.34-2.1% real/yrFair value
- 17San Francisco美国0.28-2.6% real/yrFair value
- 18New York美国0.26-1.5% real/yrFair value
- 19Paris法国0.25+0.1% real/yrFair value
- 20Milan意大利0.01-2.7% real/yrFair value
- 21São Paulo巴西-0.100% real/yrFair value
Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.
What this means for you
A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.
Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (2025年9月23日). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.