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2025 edition · 21 cities

Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.

Risk categories

City ranking

  1. 1
    Miami
    États-Unis
    1,73+1,9 % real/yrBubble risk
  2. 2
    Tokyo
    Japon
    1,59+5,7 % real/yrBubble risk
  3. 3
    Zurich
    Suisse
    1,55+5 % real/yrBubble risk
  4. 4
    Los Angeles
    États-Unis
    1,11+0,9 % real/yrOvervalued
  5. 5
    Dubai
    Émirats arabes unis
    1,09+11,1 % real/yrOvervalued
  6. 6
    Amsterdam
    Pays-Bas
    1,06+1,2 % real/yrOvervalued
  7. 7
    Geneva
    Suisse
    1,05+4,1 % real/yrOvervalued
  8. 8
    Toronto
    Canada
    0,80-7,5 % real/yrOvervalued
  9. 9
    Sydney
    Australie
    0,80+0,8 % real/yrOvervalued
  10. 10
    Madrid
    Espagne
    0,77+13,6 % real/yrOvervalued
  11. 11
    Frankfurt
    Allemagne
    0,76-1,2 % real/yrOvervalued
  12. 12
    Vancouver
    Canada
    0,76-5,9 % real/yrOvervalued
  13. 13
    Munich
    Allemagne
    0,64+1,4 % real/yrOvervalued
  14. 14
    Singapore
    Singapour
    0,55+2,6 % real/yrOvervalued
  15. 15
    Hong Kong
    Hong Kong (R.A.S.)
    0,44-7,9 % real/yrFair value
  16. 16
    London
    Royaume-Uni
    0,34-2,1 % real/yrFair value
  17. 17
    San Francisco
    États-Unis
    0,28-2,6 % real/yrFair value
  18. 18
    New York
    États-Unis
    0,26-1,5 % real/yrFair value
  19. 19
    Paris
    France
    0,25+0,1 % real/yrFair value
  20. 20
    Milan
    Italie
    0,01-2,7 % real/yrFair value
  21. 21
    São Paulo
    Brésil
    -0,100 % real/yrFair value

Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.

What this means for you

A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.

Run your own numbers

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Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (23 septembre 2025). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.