HomTerby Wet Ocean
2025 edition · 21 cities

Global Real Estate Bubble Index

Which big-city housing markets look overheated? See bubble-risk scores for 21 major cities, based on price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction trends.

Risk categories

City ranking

  1. 1
    Miami
    United States
    1.73+1.9% real/yrBubble risk
  2. 2
    Tokyo
    Japan
    1.59+5.7% real/yrBubble risk
  3. 3
    Zurich
    Switzerland
    1.55+5% real/yrBubble risk
  4. 4
    Los Angeles
    United States
    1.11+0.9% real/yrOvervalued
  5. 5
    Dubai
    United Arab Emirates
    1.09+11.1% real/yrOvervalued
  6. 6
    Amsterdam
    Netherlands
    1.06+1.2% real/yrOvervalued
  7. 7
    Geneva
    Switzerland
    1.05+4.1% real/yrOvervalued
  8. 8
    Toronto
    Canada
    0.80-7.5% real/yrOvervalued
  9. 9
    Sydney
    Australia
    0.80+0.8% real/yrOvervalued
  10. 10
    Madrid
    Spain
    0.77+13.6% real/yrOvervalued
  11. 11
    Frankfurt
    Germany
    0.76-1.2% real/yrOvervalued
  12. 12
    Vancouver
    Canada
    0.76-5.9% real/yrOvervalued
  13. 13
    Munich
    Germany
    0.64+1.4% real/yrOvervalued
  14. 14
    Singapore
    Singapore
    0.55+2.6% real/yrOvervalued
  15. 15
    Hong Kong
    Hong Kong SAR
    0.44-7.9% real/yrFair value
  16. 16
    London
    United Kingdom
    0.34-2.1% real/yrFair value
  17. 17
    San Francisco
    United States
    0.28-2.6% real/yrFair value
  18. 18
    New York
    United States
    0.26-1.5% real/yrFair value
  19. 19
    Paris
    France
    0.25+0.1% real/yrFair value
  20. 20
    Milan
    Italy
    0.01-2.7% real/yrFair value
  21. 21
    São Paulo
    Brazil
    -0.100% real/yrFair value

Score above 1.5 = bubble risk · 0.5 to 1.5 = overvalued · −0.5 to 0.5 = fair value · below −0.5 = undervalued. Price change is inflation-adjusted, year over year.

What this means for you

A high score doesn't mean prices will crash — it means prices have run far ahead of local incomes and rents, so the downside is bigger if rates rise or the economy slows. In high-risk cities, renting for longer or buying with a bigger safety margin can make sense.

Run your own numbers

Rent vs. Buy Affordability Buying a home, country by country

Source: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 (September 23, 2025). Not affiliated with UBS. For information only, not investment advice.